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Cardinals and Goldschmidt Catch Extension Fever

The fever extension has earned a major baseball league. Despite deals shortly anticipated the highly anticipated free veteran agencies Nolan Arenado and Mike Trout, and delayed the start of Alex Bregman, Aaron Hicks, Eloy Jimenez, Miles Mikolas, Luis Severino, Blake Snell, and others , the latest player to take his own market is Paul Goldschmidt. The first baseline of the 31-year-old Cardinals is reportedly agreed in a five year, $ 130 million extension for the 2020-24 period, a generous deal with the light of the past two frosty free agent trial.

Three and a half months after replacing Diamondbacks in place of Carson Kelly, Lucas Weaver, Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance B pick, it still feels as odd to type the "Cardinals first baseman" in connection with Goldschmidt, who throughout his eight year league career has become the face of the Diamondbacks franchise. An eighth round pick from Texas State University that almost did not find a prospect list ̵

1; Baseball Prospectus was ranked 10th in 2011 (a "Two-Star Prospect"), while Baseball America their annual Prospect Handbook but not even the top 10 teams published in the winter – however he made all the All-Star teams, winning three Gold Gloves, finished at the highest three of MVP's voting three times, and the team helped two playoff berths during his Arizona run. However, the Diamondbacks will not be after Division Series either in 2011 or & # 39; 17 despite Goldschmidt homering four times and slugging .688 in eight postseason games.

Although Arizona gave the postseason's lack of success, that's the kind of player most teams will try to lock the long-term. The Diamondbacks are ink Goldschmidt for a five-year, $ 32 million extension in March 2013, and in February 2017, the CEO of Derrick Hall has said hoping that "he's here for a long haul," but by January 2018 , they have emerged [1909008]

As mentioned many times in this space, Goldschmidt began slowly in the 2018 season, slugging .393 with only a 95 wRC + until the end of May , and showed signs of slowing bat speed based on his inability to get caught up to the high speed of four-seam fastballs, posting just a .238 wobA against heaters 95 mph or higher ( down from .324 and .319 over the last two seasons, and in the 14th percentile). It appears that his production was cut large in the new humidor in Chase Field (he was slugged .420 with 108 wRC + at home, .638 with a 180 wRC + away), but all said, he finished with. 290 / .389 /. 533 with 33 homers, a 145 wRC + (one point above his average career) and 5.1 WAR, 0.1 behind Freddie Freeman for the foremost first basemen. The projection-wise, he is second in our recent Positional Power Rankings, published on Monday.

While the Diamondbacks used the Goldschmidt $ 14.5 million option for this season last October, they did not go far when it came to another extension. They announced to be discussed before he was granted, but the focus of the team on payroll cuts and transition to rebuilding mode – after a rough September was not a time where they spent 125 days on one side of the first place in NL West – Trimmed their desire to pay him anything near the market value. Or maybe he no longer wants to stay around while they are retained, watching the ad on adieu bid to the likes of J.D Martinez, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock made two promises of more than $ 8.25 million: a five-year, $ 24 million extension for Ketel Marte, signed in March, and a three-year, $ 21 million deal for Eduardo Escobar last October .

So the Diamondbacks worked on Goldschmidt in a team that has a keen interest in expanding him. "As you know, we are happy over the years making deals for players who have one year remaining in their contract and are keeping them," Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. says. in January. He means Mark McGwire (acquired in July 1997), Jim Edmonds (March 2000), Scott Rolen (July 2002), and Matt Holliday (July 2009), some of them have only months left their contracts, but the point is standing. Jason Heyward (November 2014) is a well-known One That Got Away – and, from the perspective of St. Louis, perhaps for the best, based on the way he dealt with the Cubs is far from now.

While the Cardinals did not completely avoid making significant commitments to free agents over the years, including five years, Mike Leake's $ 80 million deal in December 2015, and a five-year reconciliation Dexter Fowler, $ 82.5 million a year, failed to land a top-tier impact player just as they have failed to make playoffs in each of the last three seasons. In the late winter, they did not convince Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton to abandon his no-trade clause (though they had successfully released his teammate, Marcell Ozuna) and this winter, they were exposure to free Bryce agencies Harper and Manny Machado. [19659002] Instead, they opted for Goldschmidt, five years older than any of the above-mentioned pairs, and could not say much more controversial, and, of course, cheaper. In fact, in the way of changing the agent market over the past two winters, Goldschmidt, who entered the market after his age of 31, could have a harsh reception. Finally, eight player positions over 30 years of acquiring deals longer than two years, and only two of the eight have earned more than $ 60 million in guaranteed money:

Over-30 Position Player Free Agents From End of 2017

SOURCE: ESPN Free Agent Tracker

Age is on June 30 in the first season with a new team.

It is likely that Goldschmidt may bring Martinez's momentum, washing 45 homers in 119 games just for the Tigers and Diamondbacks while slugging .690, to the free agency. And while his resumé may be fuller than Martinez or any other player above in terms of All-Star appearances and Gold Gloves (though McCutchen is a former MVP winner), it is worth noting that only a player heading to his age- The 32 season has earned a deal longer than three years.

With such a token alone, five years and $ 130 million – a contract with absolutely no trade protection but no opt-out – looks very generous. In fact, the only position of players of any age who earned more than the last two wins was Harper, Machado, and Eric Hosmer, who was only 28 when he signed his eight years, $ 144 million in Padres. That last year has an average annual cost of $ 18 million compared to $ 26 million Goldschmidt. The Goldschmidt numbers run through our contract estimator with the same conservative parameters I used for Arenado ($ 8.0 million per WAR and only 3% annual inflation, compared to $ 9 million or more, and 5 %) are as follows: [19659015] Paul Goldschmidt Contract – 5 yr / $ 155.5 M

Year Age WAR $ / WAR Contract
32 4.6 $ 8.24 M $ 37.9 M
2020 33 $ 8.74 M $ 31.5 M
3.1 $ 9.0 M $ 27.9 M [26 $ 9.0 M $ 23.4 M [Total 18.0 $ 155.5 M


Value: $ 8M / WAR with 3.0% inflation (for the first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR / -24), 0 WAR / yr (25-30), – 0.5 WAR / yr (31-37), – 0.75 WAR / yr (> 37)

That is an assessment of 20% Goldschmidt extension, and it does not include his relatively underpaid 2019, where he is expected to make 5.1 WAR and $ 40.8 million worth while paying $ 14.5 million.

So that's an estimate. Using a more conservative performance projection provided by Dan Szymborski through ZiPS requires more generous dollars-per-win and inflation assumptions to get into the ballpark, since $ 8 million for formerly and 3% for last only takes valuation at $ 101.4 million over the same five seasons. Here's what $ 9 million per win (less than the estimates of Matt Swartz's 2018) and 5% inflation – numbers that may raise some eyebrows given insights on how recently a free agent was made market – looks like this:

2020-24 Via Paul Goldschmidt ZiPS

2020 .264 [19659022] .371 .471 25 125 3.8 $ 9.45 M $ 35.9 M [19659022] 2021 .261 118 3.0 $ 9.92 M $ 29.8 M
2022 .258 .357 .428 18 111 [19659022] 2.4 $ 10.42 M $ 25.0 M
2023 .253 .347 .407 [19659019] 15 103 1.7 $ 10.94 M [19659022] $ 18.6 M
2024 .249 .336 .387 11 95 0 .9 $ 11.49 M $ 10.3 M [Totals 11.8 $ 119.6 M

The big difference between the two estimates is not just from the higher dollar numbers but also the baseline value of the Goldschmidt period and speed if where he goes down, the assumptions that are not easy to do even if you do not do not observe the weather right away. One year from now, Goldschmidt's deal may look like a bargain that comes from a big year which indicates that he's got the power of the first estimate, or such an overpay if we saw early in 2018 the beginning of his slide. Even if the collapse of these lines dropped into the discussions, the Cardinals were ready to go beyond the more generous set of assumptions, as Rocky had respect for Arenado.

As Cardinals did not go, the Goldschmidt's continued presence could motivate them to investigate the market for Jose Martinez, which they signed only for a two year, $ 3.25 million extension runs his first year of arbitration eligibility. A 30-year-old luck luck, starting with 84 starting with the first base last year and another 42 in the field, can certainly reach (130 wRC + at 915 PA), but he's not many of a defender, and the team now has him, Fowler and Tyler O & # 39; Neill join a corner, with Ozuna and Harrison Bader covering the other two spots outdoors. That said, Ozuna can be a free agent next winter, so maybe the team takes a longer look at logjam.

Even with Arenado and now Goldschmidt off the market, crop free agents next winter are not barren, although it's not as powerful as it is in the pair. More extensions may be in the way but so far, Jose Abreu, Xander Bogaerts, Nicholas Castellanos, Khris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Didi Gregorius, Ozuna, Yasiel Puig and Anthony Rendon seem to be the key player positions available, with Martinez joining to them if he chooses. Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, and Justin Verlander lead the list of pitchers, including Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, and Stephen Strasburg with opt-out holders, along with several other pitchers with club option.

All told, it reads an extension of an old school, with Cardinals attached to a solid corner corner in his mid 30th rather than estimating a more complicated and pricier youth combination and athleticism. We can see if fighting against grain helps restore their former postseason-looking face.

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